My AI predictions for 2025

I took the AI 2025 Forecasting Survey here and here are my predictions:

• These are my predictions taking into account human cost parity. I don’t think o3 meets this criteria.
• But expensive RL models will be able to generate a lot of synthetic data. Hence, still think benchmark scores will go up for cheaper models.
• I think cybersecurity and CBRN are on the easier end of the spectrum of alignment threats. Autonomy is bound to increase because we still want it to (so is persuasion, arguably).
• Lowkey misread the question about revenues but I don’t think 14B is < 5% likely. My actual prediction would probably be $8B.
• Public awareness of AI as a threat I think will start to ramp up at the end of 2025 once we get capabilities to replace more remote workers.